Global lead mkt seen close to balance in '09

Global refined lead production and consumption will be closely matched in 2009, leaving the market with only a 10,000 tonnes surplus, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said.

Global refined lead output will rise by 3.8 percent to 9.0 million tonnes next year, while consumption will increase by 4.0 percent to 8.99 million tonnes, the Lisbon-based group said in a press release on Monday after a two-day meeting late last week.

This year the organisation predicts a 31,000 tonnes surplus, based on output of 8.697 million tonnes and consumption of 8.666 million.

In April the ILZSG said it expected the lead market to record a 26,000 tonnes surplus this year.

The ILZSG said a forecast 2.1 percent drop in demand in Europe this year would push usage there to its lowest level since 1994. A further 1.4 percent drop was predicted in 2009.

Global demand growth would be driven mainly by a forecast 19.1 percent rise in offtake in China this year and by a further 9.5 percent increase next year.

Refined lead output growth would be underpinned by several countries, including Canada, China, the United States and the United Kingdom.

Global lead mine output would rise by 2.2 percent in 2009 to 3.97 million tonnes after a predicted 7.5 percent increase to 3.88 million this year.

Rising mine production in Bolivia, China and the Russian Federation next year would be partially offset by losses in Australia and Poland, the ILZSG said.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008